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    行業觀點

    2015年原油等大宗商品價格維持低位,下游需求增速明顯放緩,行業整體去庫存,產能過剩壓力如影隨形。化工行業最近幾年的形勢就是中國宏觀基本面的一個縮影,行業繼續在底部經受錘煉考驗。

    困則思變,2015年行業中部分企業率先扛起了轉型的大旗,跨界并購,上下游整合、兼并重組的大戲接踵而至,精彩紛呈。行業在波瀾不驚的基本面下,暗流洶涌,資本市場的表現則更加波瀾壯闊。2015年暴漲暴跌后,故事歸故事,事實終將是事實。2016年,市場風險偏好降低后將重歸理性,真成長、真改革將在大浪淘沙的市場洗禮后,受到真正認可。

    投資策略

    關注原油價格的低位回升:2015年,油價和大宗商品暴跌使得行業成本降低,短期利潤出現一定回升。但30美元的油價將會導致原油的供給加速收縮,供應增量將創出5年以來的新低。因此行業的供需差有望改善。而過低的油價也將會引發地緣政治問題,進一步影響油價的走勢。而一旦出現原油價格的恢復性反彈,化工產品的價格也將出現較為明顯的上行,由于目前行業的庫存水平普遍較低,因此行業補庫存的需求在油價反彈的情況下將可能一觸即發,并可能引發一波包括PTA、滌綸、炭黑等在內的化工周期股的行情。

    關注供給側改革對化工行業的深遠影響:供給側改革的實施落地則將對于飽受產能之困的周期行業產生長期而深遠的影響,對行業未來預期的改變會成為影響周期股股價的主要因素。我們認為在市場集中度較高,行業中大部分企業已經不堪重負,環境保護壓力較大的化工子行業中,供給側改革更能帶來基本面方面反轉的可能性,并改變市場的預期。關注PTA行業,草甘膦行業。

    關注國企改革落地的機遇:2014年提出國企改革的大方向,2015年國企改革逐步推進,2016年將是國企改革各項政策逐步落地的一年。建議關注有明確預期的國企改革相關公司,主要關注中化集團國企改革(中化國際、江山股份、揚農化工)。另外中國建材和中節能作為央企國企改革試點企業,旗下的上市公司也值得關注。分別為中國巨石(中建材旗下)和萬潤股份(中節能旗下)。

    關注未來有轉型預期的公司:由于2015年市場對于轉型公司關注度空前提高,相關公司的估值水平和市場預期都大幅提升。我們需要尋找有預期差的未來的轉型公司,關注紅太陽和浙江金科。 風險提示 n 市場風險偏好大幅降低對于行業平均估值水平的壓制風險。

    改革不達預期的風險。



     


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